A new choice after the peak of the medical wave, valuation OR belief?

A new choice after the peak of the medical wave, valuation OR belief?

2020 review: The pharmaceutical sector has achieved significant returns and improved status, and it has become a compulsory industry. As of 2020/12/1, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index has risen 41.37%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 17.68 percentage points, and its performance is beautiful; the pharmaceutical sector accounted for 9% of the value of the A stock market and became the largest sub-industry of the real economy. Excluding the index and medical funds), the allocation ratio is 11.1%, which is relatively low; the current size of medical theme funds is about 200 billion, and the newly issued 30 billion in 2020, the development momentum is strong; from a fundamental point of view, the domestic pharmaceutical industry has recovered to the pre-epidemic, global TOP20 The heavy volume of heavy varieties is still obvious. From the perspective of industrial attributes, the pharmaceutical industry is divided into three categories: technological innovation represented by innovative drugs; high-end manufacturing represented by raw materials and equipment; consumption upgrade represented by medical beauty, services and pharmacies.

Science and Technology Innovation

(1) Innovative drugs: The environment for innovative drugs is optimized, and internationalization is the main focus. At the beginning of December 2020, CDE accepted a total of 466 innovative drug applications for clinical and clinical approval, a year-on-year increase of 173.5%, and accepted a total of 50 innovative drug applications and marketing approvals, a year-on-year increase of 212.5%. Obtain first-mover advantage through accelerated clinical approval, accelerated priority review, and accelerated medical insurance access, and finally quickly occupy the market through sales promotion; R&D model: Innovative drug R&D model Fast-Folow-On coexists with License in, and the target License out achieves internationalization . Up to now, 4 companies have obtained breakthrough therapies approved by the US FDA, more than 15 companies have obtained orphan drug qualifications, and more than 12 companies have obtained fast track review qualifications.

(2) Vaccines: the golden track, domestic varieties are expected to usher in a period of intense volume. In terms of overseas vaccine companies, the overall vaccine business is less affected by the epidemic. Some epidemic-related varieties, such as Sanofi's influenza vaccine and Merck's 23-valent pneumonia vaccine, have increased in volume; the domestic vaccine sector basically has no risk of price reduction, but some products have increased prices. Under the logic of domestic substitution + consumption upgrade + heavy volume of new varieties, the long-term development of the industry is improving. In 2021, Zhifei Biotech’s micro-calorie vaccine, Kangtai Biotech’s 13-valent pneumonia vaccine and human diploid rabies vaccine are expected to be approved for marketing, which is expected to achieve rapid volume of blockbuster products, and its performance will be significantly reflected; in terms of new crown vaccines, Pfizer /BioNTech has been approved for emergency use in the UK, and domestic Sinopharm is likely to be approved first. 2021 will be a critical time window for the outbreak of the new crown vaccine, and leading companies are expected to enjoy significant profits. It is recommended to focus on Kangtai Biology, Zhifei Biology, and Wantai Biology. It is recommended to pay attention to Watson Biology, Kangxinuo, Kanghua Biology, etc.